What is Williams %R oversold? — chart signal explained
Williams %R measures how far price has pulled away from its recent high. It's quoted on an unusual scale running from 0 down to -100: near 0 means price is right at the recent high, near -100 means it's right at the recent low.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
Barobara flags this signal when Williams %R, computed over the high-low range of the last 14 candles, falls below -80.
How traders usually read it
Below -80 means price is pressed right up against its recent lows, which many traders read as 'the selling may be mostly done' — a spot they watch for a possible short-term rebound.
What to watch out for
Williams %R is essentially the stochastic oscillator turned upside down — the math is the same — so on Barobara this signal and 'Stoch oversold' almost always fire together, and seeing both is not double the evidence. In a steep decline, the reading can also stay below -80 while the lows keep getting lower.
What the data actually shows (BTC 1d)
The common reading is a bounce (up) — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 59 times on BTC 1d; across the most recent 59, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 49% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 56%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 49% | -0.01% |
| ±0.5% | 58% | +0.08% |
| ±0.75% | 53% | +0.05% |
| ±1% | 56% | +0.12% |
| ±1.5% | 58% | +0.24% |
| ±2% | 47% | -0.12% |
Broken down by market regime
⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −5.0% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25% target) | EV (−5.0% stop) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear market | 77% | -1.02% | N=22 |
| Sideways | 61% | -1.87% | N=18 |
| Bull market | 76% | -1.06% | N=17 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | 4.52% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-02-03 | 2.55% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-02-11 | 15.28% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-02-24 | 50.47% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-03-24 | 1.55% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-04-02 | 22.63% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-04-30 | 25.75% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-05 | 0.0% | — 🔴 stopped |
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